2008 MLB Preview
National League
 There is no dominant club here, and fewer superstar players. And that quiet parity, its own way, provides unprecedented thrills.
It's far easier to name the teams (Florida, Pittsburgh, San Francisco) that definitely won't represent the Senior Circuit in the 2008 World Series than to try and project who will. Such is the wide-open nature of the NL, which has featured the maximum eight different playoff representatives the last two years and hasn't presented a repeat pennant-winner since the 1995-96 Braves.
Colorado, the defending league champion, exemplifies this volatility. Until the middle of last September, they were the stumblebum Rockies we had all grown to know and love. One 22-1 run later, they were in their first Fall Classic. And now, given the upgrades the Diamondbacks and Dodgers pulled off, the Rockies likely will find themselves back home this October.
Last off season, no one pulled off as big an upgrade in one swift move as did the Mets, who waited out the Twins, passed on lesser options and pounced when Johan Santana finally became available to them in late January. The acquisition of Santana for four prospects, none of whom figured to have a significant impact on the '08 Mets, changed the dynamics of the entire league and buried memories of the Collapse of '07.
With a front four of Santana, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez and John Maine -- and competing against the rest of the lowly NL -- the Mets should overcome concerns about their lineup and bullpen and win their second NL East title in three years. From there, they'll be well-equipped to end their longer drought. With that rotation and their trio of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright, they are in line to capture their first world championship since 1986.
Their top competition should come from outside the division, given that the Phillies -- who lack depth in their starting rotation -- will be hard-pressed to match last year's karmically-guided campaign and the Braves are leaning heavily on aging prodigal son Tom Glavine for great things.
Out West, the Diamondbacks picked up Dan Haren for their rotation, added bullpen depth in return for trading closer Jose Valverde and are counting on the continued maturation of their young lineup. The Dodgers have a new manager in Joe Torre, of course, who should provide more leadership and stability than predecessor Grady Little. The wild card most likely will come out of the West.
In the Central, the Cubs should cruise to a second straight division title. Japanese newcomer Kosuke Fukudome should aid the offense, and ace Carlos Zambrano figures to be better now that his contract negotiations are behind him.
But one can't fully write off the Brewers, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Padres or even Nationals, as well as the Rockies, Phillies and Braves. This league has proven too much of a crapshoot to dismiss wild notions.
American League:
The top-heavy AL could feature as many as seven teams flirting with the 90-victory mark. Given that only four teams qualify for the postseason, that means there will be some very good clubs -- clubs that might be better than all 16 of the NL's members -- going home.
The Yankees, in this year of transition, could very well be one of those strong runners-up.
Brian Cashman drew praise from this corner for passing on Johan Santana and holding on to Melky Cabrera and Phil Hughes in the process. But in the short term, the Yankees, forced to over-rely on Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina, in particular, will take a hit -- not a huge hit, but one substantial enough to cost them an October berth.
In other words, they could be a 90-victory team, enjoying progress from multiple young players, yet close out Yankee Stadium in the regular season.
The smarter fans will see the big picture and appreciate Cashman's vision. But will Hank Steinbrenner rank among the smarter fans?
Long a threat to keep the Yankees or Red Sox home, the Blue Jays seem poised to put it all together. They have tremendous pitching depth, the overpowering yet brittle A.J. Burnett is in his walk year (providing extra incentive to stay healthy) and franchise player Vernon Wells wants to rebound from a bad 2007. If they can qualify for the postseason, they have a strong chance to go far -- perhaps even their first World Series appearance since 1993.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, reside where Cashman wants to be in another year or two. They're so deep and well-run that they can essentially shrug off the fact that Curt Schilling probably won't pitch for them all season. With Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka fronting a rotation that features impressive youngsters Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, and with center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury joining the everyday lineup, they should record a second straight division title.
The Central features a pair of contenders in the defending division champion Indians and the upended 2006 winner, the Tigers. The Indians return virtually their entire roster; Detroit made the bombshell trade of the off season, picking up Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins.
Although the Tigers carry severe questions about their rotation and bullpen, their lineup should cover up enough blemishes to produce a second playoff appearance in three years. The Indians might find it difficult to get similar results from young starting pitcher Fausto Carmona and veteran closer Joe Borowski.
Out West, the Angels have Torii Hunter, but the likable Hunter doesn't quite give the team the second thunderous bat it yearned to acquire and put alongside Vladimir Guerrero. The Mariners, having acquired Erik Bedard from Baltimore and banking on more improvement from Felix Hernandez, will be able to put pitching and defense together to knock out the Angels.
With such widespread success will come widespread struggles. Of the remaining seven teams, only the re-christened Rays have the potential to stir up some interest. Everyone else will absorb losses at the hands of the ruling class. It's the way of the AL. |
